Millestki ei ole kirjutada…

Plaanisin täna kirjutada blogisse uue sissekande, kuid avastasin, et eriti midagi ei toimu ja ajad on rahulikud. Seega justkui ei olegi millestki kirjutada. Aga tahaks… Ja siis tabasin, et tegemist on investorile väga olulise teemaga – mida teha siis kui midagi pole vaja teha?

Kuulsa börsikaupleja Jesse Livermore tsitaat peaks olema iga investori arvutiekraanil või vähemalt ID-kaarti lugeja küljes, et enne tehingu tegemist sinna kiire pilk peale heita:

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

Warren Buffett on sarnast mõttetera ka korduvalt investoritega jaganud. Näiteks

“Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.”

“Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it’s the lack of change that appeals to me. I don’t think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That’s the kind of business I like.”
“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

“I call investing the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.”

“You should approach investing like you have a punch card with 20 punch-outs, one for each trade in your life. I think people would be better off if they only had 10 opportunities to buy stocks throughout their lifetime. You know what would happen? They would make sure that each buy was a good one. They would do lots and lots of research before they made the buy. You don’t have to have many 4X growth opportunities to get rich. You don’t need to do too much, but the environment makes you feel like you need to do something all the time.”

Kõiki neid ütlusi saadab läbiva joonena mõttetarkus, et edukaks investoriks ei saada pideva kauplemise, osta-müü-ja-kahetse või pideva kasumivõtmise/kahjumi lõikamise tulemusena. Praktikas on aga mitte-midagi tegemine investori jaoks päris keeruline – pidevalt tuleb reaalajas infot ja uudiseid, maailmas kogu aeg midagi toimub jne. Kusagilt on mulle meelde jäänud ütlus, et tegelikkuses ei tohiks aktsia hinnad päev-päevalt eriti kõikuda. Sest midagi erilist reeglina ei juhtu – töötajad tulevad hommikul tööle, müügimehed teevad kõnesid, tehasetöötajad monteerivad tooteid ja raamatupidajad trükivad numbreid. Õhtul pannakse uksed kinni ja inimesed lähevad koju. Järgmisel päeval sama moodi. Üks hea tsitaat selle kohta Christopher Browne-lt:

“Value stocks are about as exciting as watching grass grow. But have you ever noticed just how much your grass grows in a week?”

Mida siis tegema peaks, kui parasjagu midagi teha pole? Minu kogemuse põhjal on pigem mõistlik aega ja vaeva investeerida uue kapitali teenimisse kui üritada börsil kaubeldes olemasolevast kapitalist viimast välja pigistada.

Lõpetuseks hea näide minu tehingutest Olympicu aktsiaga. Kas poleks lihtsam olnud, kui oleks alates 2008. novembrist lihtsalt ostnud ja hoidnud? Tulusam kindlasti ka 😉